BN retains Sarawak, two-thirds majority: Pakatan makes inroads

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/bn-keeps-two-thirds-majority-could-win-up-to-51-seats/

So it's official: BN has won Sarawak, and even maintained its two-thirds majority. And while people like myself are feeling very disappointed that even the burden that is Taib/Pek Moh wasn't able to cut BN down to a simple majority, the Opposition has valid reason to feel that it has scored a moral victory.

Only the official results will let us know for sure just how much the Opposition should have won by. Remember, every seat that they would've won by a small margin was probably given the postal-vote, phantom-vote treatment. Also, the multi-cornered fights in some of the constituencies may have cost the Opposition precious votes too. And in this fight, every vote counted. Given their dismal showings in past Sarawak elections, they needed everything to multiply their seats and beat back BN.

The popular vote is an interesting thing we need to account for. Because of the way the demographics are spread out amongst the different constituencies, it's a fair (in fact, almost guaranteed) bet that the shift in number of seats doesn't accurately reflect the shift in popular vote. BN won 62/71 seats in the previous election. This time, it's 55. That means they lost 7 more seats from last time - that's around a 10% swing in terms of number of seats. But look at the popular vote and I'm willing to bet the swing was more around 25%. Maybe even 30%.

Sarawak is without a doubt the most difficult terrain for which the Opposition must do battle. The sheer expansiveness of the state, the virtually non-existent transportation system within the more rural areas, the tiny reach of urbanisation, the entrenched system of money politics and the mindsets of the people all block the way of PR. Yet despite all that, it is no longer the BN's fixed deposit, as tonight has shown. From 7 more seats in the legislature, PR may get many more in Parliament and, with the time from now till the next GE, Pakatan has much time to build the roads needed to access the only people who can truly effect any sort of change at the federal level: the people of Sarawak.